Why I Think the Inland Empire Is Still Undervalued

Is the Inland Empire still undervalued compared to the rest of Southern California? Yes. Despite recent price softening, the median sale price in Riverside County was $615,000 as of March 2026 — compared to roughly $943,000 in Los Angeles County. That gap has not closed, and the long-term fundamentals still point in this region's favor.

I want to be upfront: this is not a neutral market report. This is my opinion. I've been working this market long enough to have one, and right now I think a lot of people are reading the wrong things into what's happening here.

Prices have softened slightly. Homes are sitting a little longer. The headlines about logistics jobs and tariff uncertainty are real. I'm not ignoring any of that.

But I still believe the Inland Empire is one of the most undervalued housing markets in Southern California. And the current slowdown might actually be the strongest argument for that position, not the weakest.

Here's why.

The Price Gap Is Still Massive

Let's start with the number that matters most.

According to Redfin, the median sale price in Riverside County was $615,000 in March 2026. In Los Angeles County, average home values sit around $943,000.

That's a gap of over $300,000. For comparable square footage. Comparable proximity to job centers. And in most cases, a newer home and a larger lot.

You're not getting a bungalow in Pasadena for $615K. You're getting a real home in Moreno Valley, Menifee, Beaumont, or Perris, with a garage, a yard, and space to actually live. The coastal premium has always existed in Southern California. What's changed is that coastal markets keep pricing themselves further out of reach while the Inland Empire has corrected back to sustainable levels.

That correction isn't a red flag. It's a window.

Population and Job Growth Have Been Moving This Direction for Years

Here's something that rarely makes the real estate headlines: according to Beacon Economics, between 2020 and 2025, the Inland Empire's labor force grew by 6.7% and total employment grew by 7.3%. Over that same period, Los Angeles and the Bay Area both lost jobs and workers.

Read that again. Two of California's most prominent metros were shrinking while the Inland Empire was growing.

With roughly 4.7 million residents, the Inland Empire is now one of the largest metros in the United States. This isn't a bedroom community anymore. It's a full-scale economic region, and the housing demand that comes with that population growth doesn't evaporate because mortgage rates are elevated.

People keep coming here because they have to. And that pressure doesn't reverse overnight.

New Construction Is Concentrated Here for a Reason

Developers follow demand, and they follow land. Right now, the two most active markets for new residential construction in California are Sacramento and the Riverside/San Bernardino area. That's not a coincidence.

More supply can soften prices in the short term, and we're seeing some of that. But over a 5 to 10 year horizon, a market that can actively build to meet its population growth is healthier than one that's maxed out and creating a housing crisis. Coastal markets have nowhere to go. The Inland Empire still does.

The 2028 Olympics Effect Isn't in Prices Yet

This one doesn't get talked about enough.

According to SCAG's economic analysis, the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles are projected to generate between $13.6 and $17.6 billion in GDP for the six-county region. Riverside County alone is projected to see between $1.0 and $1.32 billion in direct economic impact, with 33% of the total GDP gain accruing outside of Los Angeles County.

Infrastructure investment, regional visibility, tourism spillover, and increased attention to Southern California as a whole — all of that has downstream effects on residential real estate in adjacent markets. We're roughly two years out. None of this is reflected in current prices.

What the Softness Actually Means

I'll give the other side its due. Home values in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario metro have declined slightly year-over-year, and Southern California markets broadly softened through much of 2025. Logistics employment has pulled back. Tariff uncertainty is creating near-term headwinds.

But context matters. Prices coming off elevated pandemic highs and normalizing is not a market in trouble. It's a market catching its breath. And in a market that's catching its breath, buyers who were priced out during peak conditions now have options they didn't have 18 months ago.

If you've been sitting on the fence about buying, I'd encourage you to read our post on whether to buy now or wait in the Inland Empire before making a final call. The numbers are more nuanced than most of the coverage suggests.

What This Means for Long-Term Value

I wrote previously about why buying a rental property in the Inland Empire still makes sense for investors. The same fundamentals apply here. According to Mesa Properties, rent growth in the Inland Empire is projected at around 3.2% annually through 2026, with low vacancy rates sustaining upward pressure on rents — particularly for single-family homes.

If you own a home here, you're sitting on an asset in a region that has consistently outperformed the rest of California in population and employment growth. A flat quarter doesn't change that story.

My Bottom Line

I don't make market predictions. This market has humbled too many people who tried to call specific tops and bottoms.

What I do believe, based on everything I see working in this market every week, is this: the Inland Empire is not a market that has peaked. It's a market taking a breath in the middle of a long-term structural growth story. Markets that do that tend to reward the people who showed up anyway.

That's my opinion. You're allowed to disagree. But I'd rather you make the call yourself with the full picture in front of you.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are Inland Empire home prices so much lower than Los Angeles if they're in the same region? The IE has more available land, newer housing stock, and lower land costs than coastal markets. Distance from the coast historically reduces prices throughout Southern California, but proximity to major job centers, ports, and logistics infrastructure has driven long-term appreciation in this region for decades.

Is the Inland Empire a good long-term real estate investment? Based on current fundamentals, yes. The region has consistently outpaced LA and the Bay Area in population and employment growth since 2020, has strong new construction activity, and remains significantly more affordable than coastal Southern California. Long-term appreciation potential remains intact.

Will the 2028 Olympics affect home values in the Inland Empire? Riverside and San Bernardino Counties are projected to receive over $1.8 billion in combined economic impact from the 2028 Games, according to SCAG. Infrastructure investment, job creation, and regional visibility tied to the Olympics tend to have positive downstream effects on residential real estate in adjacent markets.

Ready to talk through what today's Inland Empire market means for your specific situation? Whether you're buying, selling, or just trying to understand where you stand, I'm happy to walk through it with you.

Call or text Chris Leeper at (951) 741-5311.

Chris Leeper, REALTOR® | DRE #01881634 | Leeper Realty Group | Brokered by eXp Realty of California, Inc.

Who you work with matters.